CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T03:11Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51109
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Nov 2025, 1240UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 171 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 008
Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 598) was
detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:24 UTC on November 09. This CME is
likely associated with a X1.79 flare (SIDC flare 6002) peaking on November
09 at 07:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active
Region 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of 720 km/s and is expected to
arrive at Earth around 03:11 UT on November 12.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:
t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|
2025-11-09T07:36:07.479 | 3.0 | 336 | 234 | 473 | 112 | 179 | 781
t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff
dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)
pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)
da: angular width of the CME (degrees),
v: median velocity (km/s)
dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME
mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME
maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# #
Lead Time: 57.47 hour(s)Difference: -5.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-09T12:43Z
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